Publications-Journal Articles:

2025

The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks with Cem Cakmakli, Selva Demiralp, Sevcan yesiltas¸ and Muhammed A. Yıldırım

The Review of Economic Studies, conditionally accepted.

Featured in Financial Times
Featured in Financial times, Martin Wolf
Featured in NY Times
Featured in Wall Street Journal
Featured in Guardian
Featured in BBC World News
Featured in WHO Press Conference
Featured in Bloomberg
Featured in New Yorker
Featured in world economic forum
Featured in MIT Technology Review
Featured in The Conversation
Featured in Story Partners
Featured in various world press
Review by VoxEU.org, January 16, 2020

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2024

Global Spillovers from FED Hikes and a Strong Dollar: The Risk Channel with Jose Cristi, Mariana Sans, and Filiz Unsal

American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 114, May 2024, 157–62.

Featured in Financial Times

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SME Failures Under Large Liquidity Shocks: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis, with Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, Veronika Penciakova, and Nick Sander

Journal of European Economic Association, july 2024.

Featured in Financial Times
Featured in Chilean Press

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2023

Global Transmission of FED Hikes: The Role of Policy Credibility and Balance Sheets with Filiz Unsal

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2023.

Podcast
Presentation

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Sovereign Risk and Bank Lending: Evidence from 1999 Turkish Earthquake with Yusuf Soner Bas.kaya , Bryan Hardy and Vivian Yue

Journal of International Economics, Vol. 150, July 2024, 103918.

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COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: A SIR Model, Demand Shocks and Capital Flows, with Cem Cakmakli, Selva Demiralp, Sevcan yesiltas¸ and Muhammed A. Yıldırım

Journal of International Economics: Volume 145, November 2023, 103825

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How to Construct Nationally Representative Firm Level Data from the Orbis Global Database: New Facts on SMEs and Aggregate Implications for Industry Concentration, with Bent E. Sørensen, Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, Vadym Volosovych, and Sevcan Yesiltas

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 16 (2), April 2024, 353–74.

Guide to process historical data
Programs to process historical data

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Quantifying the Inflationary Impact of Fiscal Stimulus Under Supply Constraints, with Julian di Giovanni, Alvaro Silva, and Muhammed A. ¨ Yıldırım

American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 113, May 2023, 76–80

Review by VoxEU.org, January 7, 2023


2022

Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation, with Julian di Giovanni, Alvaro Silva, and Muhammed A. Yıldırım

Challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world, ECB Sintra Volume.

FT Interview on FED
NYT Interview on Dollar
Featured in Bloomberg
Featured in Financial Times
Featured in NYTimes
Featured in WSJ
Featured in NPR
Review by VoxEU.org, January 7, 2023

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Gross Capital Flows by Banks, Corporates and Sovereigns, with Stefan Avdjiev, Bryan Hardy, and Luis Serven

Journal of European Economic Association, July 2022, Vol. 20(5), 2098-2135

Review by VoxEU.org, June 2017

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Debt Overhang, Rollover Risk, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from the European Crisis, with Luc Laeven and David Moreno

Journal of European Economic Association, April 2022, Vol. 20(6),2353-2395

Review by VoxEU.org, January 15, 2019

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2021

International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles, with Julian di Giovanni, Mehmet Fatih Ulu, and Yusuf Soner Baskaya

The Review of Economic Studies, October 2021

Review by VoxEU.org, September 1, 2017

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Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Firm Leverage, with Xiaoxi Liu and Ilhyock Shim

IMF Economic Review, 69(1), 90 – 121. February 2021

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COVID-19 and SMEs: A 2021 “Time Bomb”?∗ with Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Veronika Penciakova and Nick Sander

American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, vol 111, pp. 282 – 86, May 2021

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Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID: Does it ‘Get in all of the Cracks?’, with Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Veronika Penciakova, and Nick Sander

Jackson Hole Symposium Proceedings 2021.

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Quantifying the Productivity Gains from Foreign Investment, with Bent Sorensen, Vadym Volosovych, Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, and Christian Fons-Rosen

Journal of International Economics, 131, 103456, July 2021

Review by VoxEU.org, June 4, 2013
 Featured in Bloomberg and Businessweek

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2020

Capital Flows and Leverage, with Jun Hee Kwak

Annual Review of Economics, 12 (2020) 833-846

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2019

U.S. Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers

Proceedings of the Jackson Hole Symposium, 2019

Featured in Financial Times, August 25 PDF
Featured in Economist PDF

Featured in Reuters
Featured in Bloomberg
Featured in Financial Times, August 29 PDF
Review by VoxEU.org, January 16, 2020

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2017

Capital Allocation and Productivity in South Europe, with Gita Gopinath, Loukas Karabarbounis, and Carolina Villegas-Sanchez

The Quarterly Journal of Economics, November 2017, Vol. 132(4), 1915-1967.

Summary by NBER Digest
Review by VoxEU.org, September 28, 2015

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Capital Flows and the International Credit Channel, with Yusuf Soner Baskaya, Julian di Giovanni, José-Luis Peydro, and Mehmet Fatih Ulu

Journal of International Economics, Vol. 108, page S15-S22

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2016

What Hinders Investment in the Aftermath of Financial Crises? Insolvent Firms or Illiquid Banks?, with Herman Kamil and Carolina Villegas-Sanchez

Review of Economics and Statistics, October 2016, Vol. 98(4), 756-769.

Review by VoxEU.org, January 7, 2014

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Emergence of Asia: Reforms, Corporate Savings, and Global Imbalances, with Jingting Fan

IMF Economic Review, June 2016, Vol. 64(2), 239-267.

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Sovereign Debt and Financial Crises: Theory and Historical Evidence, with Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff

Journal of European Economic Association, January 2016, Vol. 14(1), 1-6.

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2014

Deep Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility, with Bent Sorensen and Vadym Volosovych

Journal of European Economic Association, December 2014, Vol. 12(6), 1558-1585.

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Sovereigns, Upstrems Capital Flows and Global Imbalances, with Laura Alfaro and Vadym Volosovych

Journal of European Economic Association, October 2014, Vol. 12(5), 1240-1284.
Data
Econ Browser, May 21, 2014
Review by VoxEU.org, October 29, 2011

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Debt Crisis and Risk Sharing: The Role of Markets versus Sovereigns, with Bent Sørensen and Emiliano Luttini

Scandinavian Journal of Economics, January 2014, Vol. 216, 253-276.

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2013

How Big are the Gains from International Financial Integration?, with Indrit Hoxha and Dietz Vollrath

Journal of Development Economics, July 2013, Vol. 103, 90-98.

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HIV and Fertility in Africa: First-Evidence from Population Based Surveys, with Chinhui Juhn and Belgi Turan

Journal of Population Economics, July 2013, Vol. 26(3), 835-853.

Review by VoxEU.org, October 4, 2008

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Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization and the Synchronization of Economic Activity, with Elias Papaioannou and Jose Luis Peydro

Journal of Finance, May 2013, Vol. 68(3), 1179-1228.
Review by VoxEU.org, September 26, 2012
Review by Harvard Review

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Global Banks and Crisis Transmission, with Elias Papaioannou and Fabrizio Perri

Journal of International Economics, March 2013, Vol. 89(2), 495-510.
Review by VoxEU.org, September 26, 2012

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2012

Leverage Across Firms, Banks, and Countries, with Bent Sorensen and Sevcan Yesiltas

Journal of International Economics, November 2012, 88(2), 284-298.

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Risk Sharing Through Capital Gains, with Faruk Balli and Bent Sorensen

Canadian Journal of Economics, May 2012, Vol. 45(2), 472-492.

Review by VoxEU.org, May 23, 2012

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2011

AIDS, Reversal of the Demographic Transition and Economic Development: Evidence from Africa

Journal of Population Economics, 2011, Vol. 25(3), 871-897.

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HIV and Fertility Revisited, with Belgi Turan

Journal of Development Economics, 2011, Vol. 96(1),61-65.

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2010

Why Does Capital Flow to Rich States?, with Bent Sorensen, Ariell Reshef, and Oved Yosha

Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2010, 92(4), 769-783.

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What Lies Beneath the Euro's Effect on Financial Integration?Currency Risk, Legal Harmonization or Trade, with Elias Papaioannou and Jose Luis Peydro

Journal of International Economics, May 2010, 81(1), 75-88.
Review by VoxEU.org, June 20, 2009

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Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Economic Growth? Exploring the Effects of Financial Markets on Linkages, with Laura Alfaro, Areendam Chanda, and Selin Sayek

Journal of Development Economics, March 2010, 91(2), 242-256.

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Mortality Change, the Uncertainty Effect and the Retirement, with David N. Weil

Journal of Economic Growth, February 2010, 15(1), 65-91.

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2009

FDI, Productivity and Financial Development, with Laura Alfaro and Selin Sayek

World Economy, January 2009, 32(1), 111-135.

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2008

Why doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation, with Laura Alfaro and Vadym Volosovych

Review of Economics and Statistics, 90, 2008.

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The Uncertain Lifetime and the Timing of Human Capital Investment,

Journal of Population Economics, 21 (3), 2008.

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2007

Financial Integration within EU Countries: The Role of Institutions, Confidence and Trust, with Mehmet Fatih Ekinci and Bent Sorensen

NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2007.
Review by VoxEU.org, November 28, 2007

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2004

FDI and Economic Growth: The Role of Local Financial Markets,with Laura Alfaro, Areendam Chanda, and Selin Sayek

Journal of International Economics, 64 (1), 2004.

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2003

Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence, with Bent Sorensen, and Oved Yosha

American Economic Review, 93 (3), 2003.

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A Stochastic Model of Mortality, Fertility, and Human Capital Investment

Journal of Development Economics, 70 (1), 2003.

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2002

Does Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?

Journal of Economic Growth, 7 (4), 2002.

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2001

Economic Integration, Industrial Specialization, and the Asymmetry of Macroeconomic Fluctuations,with Bent Sorensen and Oved Yosha

Journal of International Economics, 55 (1), 2001.

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2000

Mortality Decline, Human Capital Investment and Economic Growth, with Harl Ryder and David N. Weil

Journal of Development Economics, 62 (1), 2000.

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